Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia (PPGEcon)
Seminários no PPGECON
Na segunda-feira 22/04/2019 às 14h na sala k7, o PPGECON realizará o seminário intitulado: "Política Monetária e Preços de Ativos no Brasil: uma Avaliação Empírica para o Período de Metas para a Inflação", dos autores Bruno Tadeu Lopes Siqueira de Moura, Klebson Humberto de Lucena Moura e de Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón.
Resumo: This paper investigates the reaction of the Central Bank of Brazil (CBB)’s monetary policy to stock and exchange rate price movements during the inflationtargeting period. In addition, it verifies whether the Selic rate has responded asymmetrically to the positive and negative deviations of asset price gaps. Therefore, different specifications of the CBB’s forward-looking reaction function are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments. Results show that, in the short term, the CBB has responded asymmetrically to positive and negative exchange rate gaps, but that it has not reacted to stock price gaps. Moreover, the estimates of the implicit parameters of the reaction function indicate that only the long-term response of the Selic rate to expected inflation gap is significant. This is consistent with the theoretical analysis that the monetary authority should respond only indirectly to asset prices whenever such prices indicate changes in expected inflation.